CSIS this week released a new analysis arguing that North America’s inability to verify the true origins and inputs of goods crossing its borders — the ‘visibility gap’ — leaves the region defenceless against Chinese overcapacity that reroutes through third countries to evade tariffs.
The analysis argues that the 2026 USMCA review should advance four concrete steps — harmonising trade data, extending trusted-trader recognition, setting government standards for private-sector traceability tools, and targeting small manufacturers — to turn scattered pilots into a shared verification system.
Quote from the analysis:
The reason this now matters to all three North American economies at once is not forced labor, steel, or AI chips; it is Chinese industrial overcapacity. China produces roughly 30 percent of the world’s manufactured goods, yet it consumes only about 18 percent of them, and the surplus is sold into other markets at prices no other commercial producer can match. Left unanswered, overcapacity does more than undercut prices. It hollows out the industrial base of the countries on the receiving end.
Read the full analysis: The visibility gap: the case for a North American trusted trade laboratory