CSIS this week released a new analysis arguing the US decision not to renew the USMCA for 16 years triggers an annual review process running to 2036, leaving bilateral negotiations without a clear timeline and businesses across North America facing prolonged uncertainty.
The analysis states that the integrated nature of North American supply chains means that uncertainty imposes costs on all three partners, including the United States, creating domestic pressure that may eventually push Washington toward a negotiated outcome.
Kellie Meiman Hock, Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University stated:
Investors yearning for stability understood long ago that the July 1 USMCA “joint review” would offer little comfort, with a 16-year extension unimaginable. Under the USMCA, this means “the Commission shall meet to conduct a joint review every year” until 2036. Yet, orderly annual trilateral meetings feel equally unimaginable—although it is positive that the parties met trilaterally on July 1. Instead, a “Hotel California”–style, ongoing review is likely. To quote the Eagles, “you can checkout anytime you like, but you can never leave.”
Read the full analysis: The United States has opted not to extend the USMCA