The export restrictions Indonesia maintains on nickel ore are back under scrutiny as the DS592 dispute moves into its compliance phase. The original panel found aspects of the export prohibition and domestic processing requirements inconsistent with GATT Article XI, and the contested question now is whether subsequent policy adjustments bring the measures into conformity or merely re-label them.
Jakarta has consistently framed the restrictions as integral to its downstreaming strategy, channelling raw ore into domestic smelting and battery-precursor capacity. The complainant argues that the policy architecture, including domestic market obligations and licensing conditions, continues to produce the same quantitative restriction effect the panel condemned. The structural reality is that global stainless and battery supply chains have already reorganised around Indonesian processed output, which complicates any unwinding even if a compliance finding required it.
With the Appellate Body inoperative, the compliance trajectory is uncertain. A compliance panel could issue findings that are then appealed into suspension absent an arbitration agreement. Market participants treat the dispute as largely academic for near-term ore flows but watch it closely for signalling on how aggressively resource-holding economies can pursue beneficiation behind WTO-inconsistent walls.