Atlantic Council this week released a new commentary arguing that General License X (GL X) creates a meaningful easing of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, but significant infrastructure damage, financial system barriers, and uncertain buyer demand mean a full recovery in Iranian crude exports remains far from guaranteed.
The commentary argues US Treasury should pair GL X with clear compliance guidance, comfort letters, and fact sheets to reduce legal uncertainty and reestablish credible dollar-denominated payment systems before Iran’s oil trade shifts further toward alternative financial channels.
Quote from the commentary:
The key question, therefore, is not whether Iran can export oil under GL X, but whether the waiver will meaningfully reshape global crude trade. A full recovery in Iranian exports remains uncertain, and even with sanctions relief, it is unclear whether buyers will return to conventional dollar-based settlement mechanisms. India and China remain the most likely customers, but both have already demonstrated a willingness to route payments through alternative financial channels that operate outside the purview of the United States.
Read the full commentary: With US sanctions temporarily lifted, is Iranian crude back on the menu?