The US decision not to renew the USMCA for 16 years triggers an annual review process running to 2036, leaving bilateral negotiations without a clear timeline and businesses across North America facing prolonged uncertainty.
Category: Analysis
Posted inThink Tank News
Brookings: Lessons from the first USMCA review mechanism
Although the first USMCA review successfully followed the procedures established by the agreement and by Congress, it left important opportunities for modernisation, increased certainty, and renewed political legitimacy only partially realised by becoming entangled in a broader set of negotiations beyond the agreement itself.
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ASPI: Nakamal not quite the deal Australia wanted
The finalised Australia-Vanuatu Nakamal Agreement, while securing some important commitments, appears to be a watered-down version of the deal Australia originally sought, with weaker provisions on third-party security arrangements and policing.
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Atlantic Council: Enhancing customs to boost US-Mexico competitiveness
The USMCA review presents a critical opportunity to address nontariff barriers — particularly inefficient and misaligned customs processes — that undermine the economic and security gains the agreement is designed to deliver.
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Lowy: Thailand’s auto industry has a bigger problem than China
Thailand’s automotive decline stems primarily from weak domestic demand and EV incentives that have failed to build a local supplier base, not merely from Chinese import competition.
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ASPI: As Trump restricts AI, Australia needs options
As the United States increasingly treats advanced AI models as guarded national assets subject to export controls, Australia risks being locked out of cutting-edge technology that will determine its economic, social, and security future.
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ASPI: China wants to control supply chain knowledge
China is building legal tools to treat supply chain knowledge as a strategic asset, using new regulations to control who can collect, use, and act on that information.
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Reinsch: USTR is half right on forced labor
USTR investigations found all 60 countries guilty of forced-labor violations, confirming one prediction, but the remedy — flat tariff rates rather than links to previously negotiated trade agreements — did not match what the author had forecast.
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ASPI: China is teaching Australia an economic power lesson
China’s creation of a coordinated iron ore purchasing body (CMRG) demonstrates that economic power increasingly resides with those who organise demand, not merely those who own resources.
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CSIS: Brazil’s effort to regulate digital markets
Brazil’s proposed Fair Competition Act for Digital Markets offers a flexible, context-sensitive alternative to the EU’s Digital Markets Act by empowering CADE to designate systemically relevant firms and tailor obligations accordingly, but this same flexibility risks creating regulatory uncertainty that could deter investment.